The Next Big Trade: Mexico


Mexico has been an all-out free for all these past few years. The media doesn’t cover it because it’s something they don’t want you, the people, to know about.  They don’t want you to know about it because it leads to a subject that is like the third rail in the subway tracks. These cartels down there are chopping people up into pieces by the thousands because they are arguing over who controls the flow of drugs into the good old USA. Now if the War on Drugs was a success and our lovely law enforcement officials are so good at thwarting this why would there be such a fight over who has the right to bring the drugs in.

The conflict down there is an all-out war. The body count is horrific and it’s created a non-friendly business environment for the country. The former government escalated the situation by raising the stakes, fight the cartels and in turn only threw gasoline on the fire. Wages have hit rock bottom in Mexico and the economy has been a mess. The newly elected government wants to focus on growing the economy. The low wage environment has Mexico stealing jobs from China already.

Just a few weeks ago Miguel Angel Treviño Morales, the boss of the notoriously violent Los Zetas drug cartel, was captured in the border city of Nuevo Laredo. The guy called himself Z-40, was a violent psychopath who has been one of the ring leaders in the 80,000 death toll count these cartel wars have seen.  The Mexican marines apparently had a nice shootout with this guy and his paramilitary homies he rolls with. The Mexican government’s goal from what it looks like is to rid the notoriously violent cartel bosses and turn a blind eye to the drug cartels as long as there is no violence. Same concept you hear in every gangster movie. “Blood is bad for business so he’s got to go” is the policy they are going for.

Not to say its going to be peaches and roses down there but remember Juarez, Mexico is the most deadly place on Earth, so the only place to go is up. It couldn’t be any worse. Any improvement would be substantial for business. No violence means the suits will come pouring in to Mexico (which has already started) and open up shop. The suits will have politicians easing every regulation up to get business flowing and will be completely in their pockets. Suits love that. If there is one thing suits love more, its cheap labor. For the record I am and everyone should always be bullish on cheap labor. Three letters EWW.

Year over year (YOY)

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Moving Averages & Trendlinesmex chart